German Companies in the U.S. See a Boost Again—Despite Tariff Barriers
A special U.S. evaluation of the AHK World Business Outlook (Fall 2026) shows a clear shift in sentiment among German companies operating in the United States. However, the unpredictability of U.S. trade policy and ongoing trade barriers are likely to change little at first, even after the Midterm election results.
04.11.2026 — Even before the U.S. midterm elections, German companies in the U.S. had already shown a noticeable change in mood. After the intense tariff turmoil of the past few months, they now rate their business in the U.S. significantly better than they did in spring. They want to invest more again and hire additional staff. Still, the improved outlook has a downside: the difficult-to-predict U.S. trade policy and continuing trade barriers continue to pose major challenges for companies on the ground.
This is reflected in a current survey by the German Chamber of Commerce and Industry (DIHK) and the German Chambers of Commerce Abroad (AHKs), conducted among German companies in the U.S. in October—before the U.S. midterm elections.
New U.S. congressional majorities are also expected to make little difference at first. “The Congress changes color, but responsibility for trade policy remains in the White House. For our companies, the situation therefore remains uncertain. They have repeatedly had to adjust to new rules of the game and have proven that they can succeed even under difficult conditions,” says Helena Melnikov, DIHK’s chief executive.
U.S. Business: Sentiment Turns Clearly Positive
The October figures show a striking turnaround in sentiment: nearly two-thirds (64%) of the surveyed German companies in the U.S. rate their current business situation as good, while only 5% describe it as poor. In spring, the assessment was much more restrained. The outlook for the future is also highly optimistic: 59% expect better business over the next twelve months, while only 5% anticipate a deterioration.
Behind this is also the strength of the U.S. economy. Thirty-nine percent of companies expect the economic situation in the U.S. to improve. The balance between positive and negative expectations has risen since spring from minus six to plus 29 points—marking the first time since Trump’s return to office that it is clearly above the long-term average.
More Confidence, but the Tariff Dispute Remains Acute
The Turnberry deal has limited the trade-policy “zigzag” and created more predictability. From the perspective of German companies, however, higher tariffs and trade barriers remain a burden. More than half of the companies (51%) see the economic-policy framework as a major business risk. Three years ago, the figure was still 34%. Almost every second company (47%) cites trade barriers as a risk—nearly four times as many as in 2023.
“Business is going well—not because of the tariffs, but despite them,” Melnikov says. “Now the U.S. should finally fully implement the tariff rules agreed with the EU, instead of calling the agreement into question with new tariff threats. Companies need reliable rules of the game, not constant trade-policy surprises.”
U.S. Trade Policy Drives Investment Locally—Those Who Stay Are Restructuring
How strongly companies had already adjusted to changing conditions before the midterms is reflected in their investment and staffing plans: 41% plan to increase their investments in the U.S. over the next twelve months, and 48% plan to hire additional personnel. At the same time, almost one in three companies (29%) says it plans to shift targeted investments to the U.S. in response to U.S. trade policy. More than one in four companies (27%) is also adjusting its supply chains more toward American suppliers.
German companies are moving closer to their customers and producing more on site. For Germany as a business location, this is a warning sign: “What is invested in the U.S. could be missing here in Germany,” Melnikov warns. For the companies surveyed, withdrawing from the U.S. market is not an option. None plan to leave the U.S. Only 2% want to reduce their business there.
Germany Must Become More Attractive Itself
For Melnikov, this leads to a clear mandate for German and European policymakers. The U.S. remains one of the most important markets for German companies. At the same time, Europe must broaden its trade relationships, and Germany’s economic location must become more attractive again in international competition.
“To prevent more and more investment from moving across the Atlantic, we need better conditions here at home. High energy and labor costs, bureaucracy, and lengthy permitting processes make investing in Germany less attractive. We can and must change that ourselves. Because one thing is clear: trade policy is decided in Washington. Whether Germany can keep up as an investment location depends above all on what we do ourselves.”
About the Survey: The AHK Regional Business Outlook USA is based on the regular DIHK survey of member companies of the German Chambers of Commerce Abroad (AHKs). The survey conducted from October 5 to 23, 2026 included responses from 99 companies in the United States. Worldwide, nearly 3,500 company responses were submitted for the AHK World Business Outlook Fall 2026, which will be officially presented on November 17.